The Come On Man: Fantasy Football - 3: Picking The Defense

Lab Record Type Section

Introduction

This post is part 3 of a series of number crunching posts I intend on doing on some EPL Fantasy Football data I have. I focus on selecting the defenders in this one.

Part 1 has the main introduction and some other relevant details and assumptions and things like that. It also has the Dream Team of the Year and Weekly Dream Teams which I shall be referring to frequently.

Relevant Summary of Earlier Parts

I minimise the active defenders by playing a 3-4-3 or a 3-5-2. This is backed by the formations in the Dream Team of the Year and the Weekly Dream Teams.

Central defenders have low scoring prospects, you won't find me with an expensive Kompany or a Vidic. I might be open to a similar outlay on a wing-back maybe because of the higher assists or goals probability and therefore a Baines or a Coleman is possible.

The trade-off is usually between chasing clean sheets or chasing goals and assists.

Are Expensive Defenders Worth The Investment?

From the team of the year Coleman was amongst the goals and assists while Terry and Mertesacker were defensive rocks and scored about one bonus point for every match they played in. Coleman's stock saw a sharp rise over the year and if he were priced at 7m to begin with, then we would have to lose Giroud and Lambert and get Fonte and Sturridge instead and the overall tally would have dropped by 16 points, but Coleman would still be a part of the team. The prices for Terry and Mertesacker didn't rise as steeply so I skipped doing the same check for them. Coleman's test was enough for me to be convinced that defense was worth the investment.

Another sign pointing at the same would be points per pound return which defenders top at 30 as compared to the 24 of the midfielders and forwards.

Another interesting bit on this when I analyse the point value of transfer in part 4.

Chasing Goals or Clean Sheets?
The guys below are the ones that make it to at least 4 teams of the week.

Name	Frequency in Weekly Dream Team
Laurent Koscielny	4
John Terry	4
Branislav Ivanovic	4
Chico	4
Martin Skrtel	4
Steven Caulker	5
Seamus Coleman	6
Leighton Baines	7

This is a fairly even split between full backs and centre backs although all the centre backs were also amongst the goals during the season. Mertesacker makes it only to 2 weekly dream teams and doesn't figure here. Terry makes it to 4, and Coleman 6. Baines makes it to 7, and probably would have made it the Dream Team of the Year were he not injured for that long stretch. This doesn't help much though.

If you look at what gets defenders into the team, you get the answer to the question the section poses. The chart below, if you please -

About (60/98 = ) 61% of the goals scored by defenders helped them be a part of the weekly dream team while only 11% of the clean sheets did the same. Of the 137 defender-gameweek combinations that made it to the weekly dream teams, 39 got in only with a clean sheet, while 34 got in with a goal or an assist without a clean sheet. 62 had a clean sheet with either a goal or an assist to their name.

The answer, therefore, is you should be chasing both. Enter the bench.

How to Use the Bench

The table below lists the top scoring defensive combinations if you were to correctly pick 3 defenders and rotate them with 2 more on the bench. Any combination with 3 or more players coming from the same team was omitted. There are quite a few columns so please pardon the exclusion of the thumbnails (which I was growing pretty fond of).

Name 1	Team 1	Name 2	Team 2	Name 3	Team 3	Name 4	Team 4	Name 5	Team 5	Total Start Price	Total Points with Rotn
Laurent Koscielny	ARS	John Terry	CHE	Leighton Baines	EVE	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	28.50	732
Per Mertesacker	ARS	John Terry	CHE	Leighton Baines	EVE	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	28.50	732
Laurent Koscielny	ARS	Per Mertesacker	ARS	John Terry	CHE	Leighton Baines	EVE	Seamus Coleman	EVE	29.50	730
Laurent Koscielny	ARS	John Terry	CHE	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Martin Skrtel	LIV	Jose Fonte	SOU	26.50	730
Per Mertesacker	ARS	John Terry	CHE	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Martin Skrtel	LIV	Jose Fonte	SOU	26.50	729
Laurent Koscielny	ARS	John Terry	CHE	Branislav Ivanovic	CHE	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Martin Skrtel	LIV	28.50	727
Laurent Koscielny	ARS	John Terry	CHE	Leighton Baines	EVE	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Martin Skrtel	LIV	29.50	727
Per Mertesacker	ARS	John Terry	CHE	Leighton Baines	EVE	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Martin Skrtel	LIV	29.50	727
Laurent Koscielny	ARS	John Terry	CHE	Branislav Ivanovic	CHE	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	27.50	727
Laurent Koscielny	ARS	Per Mertesacker	ARS	John Terry	CHE	Branislav Ivanovic	CHE	Seamus Coleman	EVE	28.50	725
John Terry	CHE	Leighton Baines	EVE	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Martin Skrtel	LIV	Jose Fonte	SOU	28.50	724
Laurent Koscielny	ARS	Branislav Ivanovic	CHE	Leighton Baines	EVE	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	29.00	722
Per Mertesacker	ARS	Branislav Ivanovic	CHE	Leighton Baines	EVE	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	29.00	721
John Terry	CHE	Branislav Ivanovic	CHE	Leighton Baines	EVE	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	29.50	721

The highest combination returns 732 points over the year which is about 230 points (almost 50%) more than the Dream Team of the Year' Defense tally. However, it costs 28.5 which is a tad more than the (17 + ( 2 X 4.5 ) = ) 26 we've allowed ourselves That should give a good idea of the value of bench strength for defense. The fact that Skrtel's unexpected goal-scoring exploits help him figure six times on this list is the sort of thing that raises the flags of overfitting.

If you look at the other high-scoring options across the budget range, the expected tally from high-scoring options at each budget is about the same, at around 650. The points in this chart only account for the combinations which scored at least 592 points (the total defense turnover from the Dream Team was 503) cumulatively between all five of them. Don't ask me how I got that number, but I did.Why did I do that, you ask? Because it brought down the number of combinations I had to evaluate from over 5 million down to a more manageable 12000. It would have taken a really long time. It would have been even more consuming if I were doing this by hand. Much longer, if I were doing it by foot. But anyway...

Make sure you read the paragraph above before you read the chart.
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If you're able to predict things like Skrtel scoring two goals, etc. then it might make sense for you to gamble higher amounts and try and figure out the best combination. If you can't predict such a thing, then you're probably safer sticking to the left end of the chart but picking a sturdy combination. Combinations that cost 24m or less are as below -

Name 1	Team 1	Name 2	Team 2	Name 3	Team 3	Name 4	Team 4	Name 5	Team 5	Total Start Price	Total Points with Rotn
John Terry	CHE	Joel Ward	CRY	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Curtis Davies	HUL	Jose Fonte	SOU	24.00	661
John Terry	CHE	Joel Ward	CRY	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	Nathaniel Clyne	SOU	24.00	655
John Terry	CHE	Joel Ward	CRY	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	Luke Shaw	SOU	24.00	654
Per Mertesacker	ARS	Joel Ward	CRY	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	Guy Demel	WHU	24.00	650
Laurent Koscielny	ARS	Joel Ward	CRY	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Curtis Davies	HUL	Jose Fonte	SOU	23.50	649
Laurent Koscielny	ARS	Joel Ward	CRY	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	Dejan Lovren	SOU	24.00	648
Per Mertesacker	ARS	Joel Ward	CRY	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	Dejan Lovren	SOU	24.00	648
Per Mertesacker	ARS	Joel Ward	CRY	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Curtis Davies	HUL	Jose Fonte	SOU	23.50	647
Laurent Koscielny	ARS	Joel Ward	CRY	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	Steven Caulker	CAR	24.00	646
Ron Vlaar	AVL	John Terry	CHE	Joel Ward	CRY	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	24.00	645
Per Mertesacker	ARS	Damien Delaney	CRY	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Curtis Davies	HUL	Jose Fonte	SOU	24.00	644
John Terry	CHE	Joel Ward	CRY	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Martin Olsson	NOR	Jose Fonte	SOU	24.00	644
Per Mertesacker	ARS	Joel Ward	CRY	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	Steven Caulker	CAR	24.00	644
Per Mertesacker	ARS	Joel Ward	CRY	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	Luke Shaw	SOU	23.50	643
John Terry	CHE	Joel Ward	CRY	Damien Delaney	CRY	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	24.00	641
Laurent Koscielny	ARS	Joel Ward	CRY	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	Luke Shaw	SOU	23.50	641
John Terry	CHE	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Liam Rosenior	HUL	Jose Fonte	SOU	Luke Shaw	SOU	24.00	639
Per Mertesacker	ARS	Damien Delaney	CRY	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	Luke Shaw	SOU	24.00	638
Per Mertesacker	ARS	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Curtis Davies	HUL	Jose Fonte	SOU	Luke Shaw	SOU	24.00	638
Gary Cahill	CHE	Joel Ward	CRY	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	Luke Shaw	SOU	24.00	637
Laurent Koscielny	ARS	Damien Delaney	CRY	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	Luke Shaw	SOU	24.00	636
Laurent Koscielny	ARS	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Curtis Davies	HUL	Jose Fonte	SOU	Luke Shaw	SOU	24.00	636
Laurent Koscielny	ARS	Joel Ward	CRY	Damien Delaney	CRY	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	23.50	632
Per Mertesacker	ARS	Joel Ward	CRY	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	Geoff Cameron	STK	24.00	632
Per Mertesacker	ARS	Joel Ward	CRY	Damien Delaney	CRY	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	23.50	631
Per Mertesacker	ARS	Joel Ward	CRY	Sylvain Distin	EVE	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	24.00	629
Gary Cahill	CHE	Joel Ward	CRY	Damien Delaney	CRY	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Jose Fonte	SOU	24.00	621
John Terry	CHE	Joel Ward	CRY	Damien Delaney	CRY	Seamus Coleman	EVE	Luke Shaw	SOU	24.00	619

If you allow me a little leeway on the rigour going into the study, a visual inspection of the above table points out that most combinations feature two regulars from a top 7 team with sturdy defenses and scoring intents, and three others from the Crystal Palaces, and Southamptons of the league. You may recall that Coleman was price pretty low to begin with, at 5 but sine we're managing within 24m, we could still afford him at 7 and keep it within budget.

Conclusion

Pick two more expensive, attacking defenders from the stronger teams. Purely by virtue of being in a strong team, they will get plenty of clean sheets. Rotate the third position amongst the other three defenders you pick who should be low-price but from teams that will shut out oppositions during the fight against relegation or based on managerial tactics. Look out for injuries to starters and then jump on the second line. From last year, think Oviedo after Baines, or Azpilicueta after Cole. Also look out for surprise packages like Curtis Davies or Caulker. You could substitute one of these for one of the more expensive chaps and save an additional 1m to 2m. Refer to part 2 for the home-away complementary logic which helps boost the goalkeeping score, and the complementing teams this year, and use the same to pick defenders too.

Expect Baines, Coleman, Zabaleta, and Shaw to be worth their prices this year. Debuchy might be a surprise package with Mertesacker, Koscielny, and Szczesny bringing in the clean sheets while Monsieur Matthieu goes about putting in croissants, err... crosses. With Pochettino at Spurs, I'm expecting a stream of clean sheets and big things from Walker and Davies. With the addition of Filipe Luis, I expect plenty of rotation at Chelsea and wouldn't pick any of those chaps unless signs indicate otherwise. United playing a back 3 / 5 is a good option but if the wingbacks are midfielders then, and I can't believe I'm saying this, Johny Evans might be a good pick. Everton - Coleman or Baines, Baines is the designated penalty and set-piece taker. Liverpool and City both defensively poor so that needs to be relooked at.

I don't know much aout the promoted teams so look them up. Check out the pre-season results for teams with managerial changes such as Southampton and WBA. Expect Crystal Palace and West Ham to do more of the same as they did last year. These would be strong candidates for the rotating positions.